Forecasting antimicrobial resistance in China using a hybrid ARIMA-GM(1,1) model
The ARIMA-GM(1,1) model has been statistically validated in predicting the resistance rates of MRSA, CTX/CRO-R-KP, CRKP, and CRPA, indicating a significant downward trend driven by the National Action Plan for Curbing Bacterial Drug Resistance (2016-2020). While effective in capturing temporal dynamics, future research should integrate antibiotic usage data and other influencing factors for more targeted interventions.
Authors
- Hongbin Song (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2781-3031)
- Chang–Gwon Dang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1026-0167)
- Yuanyong Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9709-6881)
- Hui Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0048-0193)
- Ziqian Zhao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5203-5540)
- Hengliang Lv
- Feng Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-1358-6736)
- Sijin Zhu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4897-8030)
- Yang Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-3388-5008)
Institutions
- Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention (CN)
- Chinese People's Liberation Army (CN)
- Chinese People’s Liberation Army 263 hospital (CN)
- China Medical University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- BMC Infectious Diseases
- Published
- 2025-08-14
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-11483-4
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Antibiotic Use and Resistance
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.52
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China