CHANNELS OF MACROPRUDENTIAL REGULATION: A NEW TREND IN SYSTEMIC RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OF THE BANKING SECTOR

This study focuses on identifying potential triggers for the development of the banking sector based on systemic risk indicators within macroprudential policy, examining its transmission through new channels as an effective method for maintaining financial stability in Russia's banking sector. An analysis using composite financial stress indices indicates that the state of the financial market in early to mid-2024, as assessed by ACRA ratings and the Bank of Russia, was under threat due to rising mortgage and consumer lending. These areas were in a heightened state of instability due to non-market funding mechanisms and a series of external shocks. The study aims to develop a forecast for identifying new financial market triggers and regulatory adjustments for 2025 by modernizing macroprudential policy tools. The hypothesis of the study is grounded in the urgent need to implement strict prudential measures to mitigate systemic risk, given the inefficacy of monetary policy and the growing risk of productivity loss in the real sector amid increasing debt burdens and the absence of government support. A forecast of the banking sector and economic production under current market conditions is provided, along with an assessment of the effectiveness of new macroprudential policy tools in achieving financial stability. The study analyzes the impact of new measures on commercial banks and conducts a macroeconomic assessment of Russia's economy and credit market to identify key destabilizing factors in the financial sector. Additionally, it proposes directions for refining specific macroprudential tools and procedures.