Systematic Review of Critical Factors Influencing the Price of Natural Gas: Lessons for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Adoption in Nigeria

Abstract In response to growing concerns about global warming and commitments to international climate agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol (2005) and the Paris Agreement (2015), many fossil-fuel-dependent economies are pursuing innovative strategies to reduce carbon emissions and achieve net-zero targets. For Africa, natural gas has emerged as a key transition fuel due to its relatively lower carbon emissions compared to crude oil. The 2024 OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin indicates that Africa holds 9% of global gas reserves, contributing significantly to the region's energy security and economic potential. Natural gas is traded through diverse channels, including physical pipelines, spot markets on financial exchanges, and through market hubs. However, its price—a critical determinant of trading and broader market dynamics—is influenced by complex and interrelated factors such as market demand and supply dynamics, geopolitical developments, technological advancements, and infrastructural limitations. Understanding these price drivers is essential for facilitating the broader adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) in Nigeria, where the potential for gas as a cleaner, more sustainable energy source remains underutilised. This study employs a systematic review and multi-case study methodology to analyse secondary data and synthesise literature on critical factors influencing natural gas pricing. This paper will provide actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, offering pathways to enhance the sustainability and competitiveness of Nigeria's CNG market. It will contribute to the broader discourse on natural gas pricing and adoption in developing economies like Nigeria, addressing the connection between economic growth, energy transition, and environmental stewardship.