Enhancing Hyperlocal Wavelength-Resolved Solar Irradiance Estimation Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

Accurate characterization of surface solar irradiance at fine spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution is central to applications such as solar energy and environmental monitoring. On the one hand, modeling radiative transfer to achieve such accuracy requires detailed characterization of a wide range of factors, including the vertical profiles of gaseous and particulate absorbers and scatterers, wavelength-resolved surface reflectivity, and the three-dimensional morphology of clouds. On the other hand, satellite-based remote sensing products typically provide top-of-the-atmosphere irradiance at coarse spatial resolutions, where individual pixels can span several kilometers, failing to capture fine-scale intra-pixel variability. In this study, we introduce a machine learning framework that integrates large-scale remote sensing satellite data with hyperlocal, second-by-second ground-based measurements from an ensemble of low-cost spectral sensors to estimate the wavelength-resolved surface solar irradiance spectra at the hyperlocal level. The satellite data are obtained from the Harmonized Sentinel-2 MSI (MultiSpectral Instrument), Level-2A Surface Reflectance (SR) product, which offers high-resolution surface reflectance data. By leveraging machine learning, we model the relationship between satellite-derived surface reflectance and ground-based spectral measurements to predict high-resolution, wavelength-resolved irradiance, using target data obtained from an NIST-calibrated reference instrument. By utilizing a low-cost sensor ensemble that is easily deployable at scale, combined with downscaled satellite data, this approach enables accurate modeling of intra-pixel variability in surface-level solar irradiance with high temporal resolution. It also enhances the utility of the Harmonized Sentinel-2 MSI data for operational remote sensing. Our results demonstrate that the model is able to estimate surface solar irradiance with an R2 ≈ 0.99 across all 421 spectral bins from 360 nm to 780 nm at 1 nm resolution, offering strong potential for applications in solar energy forecasting, urban climate research, and environmental monitoring.