Bridging the Gap: Forecasting China’s Dual-Carbon Talent Crisis and Strategic Pathways for Higher Education

China’s carbon peak and neutrality transition is critically constrained by the severe talent shortage and structural inefficiencies in higher education. This study systematically investigates the current status of “dual-carbon” talent cultivation and demand in China, leveraging annual “dual-carbon” talent cultivation data from universities nationwide. By applying the GM(1,1)-ARIMA hybrid forecasting model, it projects future national “dual-carbon” talent demand. Key findings reveal significant regional disparities in talent cultivation, with a pronounced mismatch between industrial demands and academic supply, particularly in interdisciplinary roles pivotal to decarbonization processes. Forecast results indicate an exponential growth in postgraduate talent demand, outpacing undergraduate demand, thereby underscoring the urgency of advancing high-end technological research and development. Through empirical analysis and innovative modeling, this study uncovers the structural contradictions between “dual-carbon” talent cultivation and market demands in China, providing critical decision-making insights to address the bottleneck of carbon-neutral talent development.