Attribution and Risk Assessment of Wind Erosion in the Aral Sea Regions Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing and RWEQ on GEE

The rapid desiccation of the Aral Sea has transformed the region into one of the world’s most severe soil wind-erosion hotspots. Despite growing concern, long-term, high-resolution assessments and driver attribution remain insufficient. This study integrates the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) with multi-source remote sensing data on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to simulate wind erosion dynamics from 1990 to 2020. The residual trend method was used to disentangle the contributions of climate change and human activities, while erosion risk was assessed using the Information Quantity model and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This study reveals five key findings: (1) wind erosion increased significantly after 2011, peaking in 2015 with an annual growth rate of 2.418 kg/m2. (2) The Aral Sea Basin’s relative contribution to regional erosion declined sharply, indicating a shift in dominant erosion zones to peripheral deserts. (3) Climate change emerged as the primary driver, contributing 70.19% overall, and up to 92.13% in recent years, while human activities showed a peak influence (55.53%) in 2005. (4) Spatial attribution showed climate dominance in desert areas and localized human impact in exposed lakebeds. (5) High-risk erosion zones expanded rapidly into the Kyzylkum Desert after 2010, due to rising wind speeds and vegetation loss. This study provides a robust remote sensing–based framework for wind erosion monitoring and attribution, offering critical insights for erosion mitigation and ecological restoration in arid, climate-sensitive regions.