An analysis of the influence of legal changes on the number of traffic crashes and fatalities in Poland in 2022

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of the tightening of road laws in Poland in 2022 on the number of recorded crashes involving casualties and fatalities. Throughout 2022, a series of legal changes were introduced in Poland that increased penalties, primarily financial, for traffic violations and crimes. At the same time, the number of crashes involving casualties in the analysed year significantly decreased compared to 2021. This study examined the statistical significance of the impact of these legal changes on road safety and estimated the decrease in the number of crashes involving casualties and fatalities due to legislative activity. Interrupted time series analysis was the primary tool used for this purpose. Additionally, the results obtained for Poland were compared with data from selected neighbouring countries. The findings indicate a significant and statistically meaningful impact of the legal changes. Based on the proposed model, the decrease can be estimated at approximately 6-8% for the number of crashes and about 22% for the number of fatalities.