Can the National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS)-1978 of the United States be effective in other regions? Israel as a case study

Background Effective fire management requires reliable pre-fire risk assessment tools. The United States (US) National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS)-1978 is widely used, yet its applicability in non-US ecosystems remains uncertain. Aims We retrospectively tested the effectiveness of the Burning Index (BI) in predicting wildfire characteristics in non-US Mediterranean-type ecosystems, using Israel as a case study. Methods We examined correlations between the BI and wildfire characteristics at multiple temporal scales and developed an enhanced predictive model by integrating the index with vegetation-related and anthropogenic variables. Key results The BI had stronger correlations with wildfire burned area at coarser temporal scales (monthly and weekly), whereas its correlative utility diminished at finer resolutions (daily and event-based scales). Incorporating additional data – such as live fuel moisture content (LFMC), vegetation continuity and anthropogenic factors – significantly enhanced model performance for burned area predictions, increasing the explained variance up to 50% when arson and military-related wildfires were excluded. In contrast, wildfire duration was not successfully predicted by either BI alone or the multivariable predictive model. Conclusions The BI’s predictive strength is scale-dependent and limited at fine resolutions. Implications Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the characteristics of the local fire regime when adapting the NFDRS for non-US ecosystems.