Predicting the Global Distribution of Fusarium circinatum Using MaxEnt Modeling

Fusarium circinatum poses severe threats to agroforestry ecosystem as a globally significant pathogenic fungus. This study utilized multi-source species distribution data and environmental variables (climatic, topographic, and soil factors) to predict the global potential habitat suitability of F. circinatum and its response to future climate change using an optimized MaxEnt model (RM = 1, FC = LQ). The results indicate that the current total suitable area spans approximately 69.29 million km2, with highly suitable habitats (>0.493) accounting for 15.07%, primarily concentrated in East Asia, southwestern North America, western South America, the Mediterranean coast, and eastern Australia. The distribution of F. circinatum’s suitable habitats is primarily constrained by the following environmental factors, ranked by contribution rate: coldest quarter precipitation (29.4%), coldest quarter mean temperature (18.2%), annual mean temperature (17.2%), and annual precipitation (12%). Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats exhibited an overall contraction and poleward shift, with the most significant decline in highly suitable areas observed under SSP370-2050s (−52.1%). The centroid of suitable habitats continuously migrated northwestward from Gombe State, Nigeria, with the maximum displacement reaching 1077.6 km by SSP585-2090s. This study reveals a latitude gradient redistribution pattern of F. circinatum driven by climate warming, providing a scientific basis for transboundary biosecurity and early warning systems.