When the Rain Falls: The Impact of Rural Criminal Offenses on Labor Migration

Using data from the 2020 and 2022 China Rural Revitalization Survey (CRRS), we explore the labor migration effects of rural criminal offenses. The results indicate that criminal offenses occurring in a village increase the probability of initial out-migration by the local labor force by 6.07%, and decrease the intention of return-migration among the labor force that has already migrated for more than 2 years by 11.48%. The mechanism behind this impact is that criminal offenses reduce local social trust and increase the difficulty of obtaining government resources for the village. Moreover, the impact of rural criminal offenses is more pronounced in the labor force with children and those with higher education levels. JEL Codes: J61; J68; K42; P25