Use of evaluation evidence in municipal decisions: The case of Tshwane’s indigent programme

Background: Evidence-based decision-making (EBDM) is a fundamental principle in governance, particularly in social welfare policies where programme effectiveness depends on rigorous data analysis. However, in many municipal contexts, including South Africa, decision-making relies heavily on administrative data and performance monitoring, with limited integration of evaluation evidence into policymaking. Aim: This study examines the key factors influencing the use of evaluation evidence in decision-making for the indigent programme exit strategy in the City of Tshwane (CoT). It identifies systemic barriers to evidence use and explores how political dynamics, institutional structures and capacity constraints affect the uptake of evaluation findings in municipal governance. Methods: Using a qualitative case study approach, data were collected through semi-structured interviews, document analysis and focus group discussions with municipal officials, political stakeholders and programme beneficiaries. This triangulated methodology provides a comprehensive understanding of how evaluation evidence or the lack thereof influences local policymaking. Results: The study reveals that the absence of a structured evaluation culture, political interference and weak institutional frameworks limits the use of evaluation evidence. Municipal decision-makers often prefer performance monitoring over impact evaluations, resulting in policy inertia. Political actors selectively use evidence that aligns with electoral interests, while weak knowledge systems and limited technical capacity hinder accessibility and application of evaluation findings. Conclusion: To enhance programme effectiveness, municipalities must institutionalise evaluation, improve political commitment to evidence use, and develop robust knowledge management systems. Contribution: This study advances understanding of the barriers to evidence-informed decision-making in South African municipalities and offers practical recommendations for reform.