The impact of global change on the slow decline in human-wild boar (Sus scrofa) conflicts in central China from 2018 to 2022

Wild boar ( Sus scrofa ), once a protected terrestrial omnivore in China, disturb agricultural production and rural livelihoods by visiting cropland. Hundreds of cases of human-wild boar conflicts in central China were reported over the past two decades, but the trend within the recent 5 years was not yet quantified. To study if there was a recent change in human-wild boar conflicts and how climate change and land-use change were associated with this trend, we surveyed 1665 families from 111 villages affected by wild boar in central China, and built linear mixed-effects models with village as the random term and 18 variables of geographic and socioeconomic conditions, land use, and climate as the fixed terms. Results show that there is a decline in the number of wild boar visits per family at the rate of −0.070 visits per family yearly from 2018 to 2022 ( p = 0.021). This trend is positively associated with the change rate of annual precipitation ( p = 0.029) while land-use change is not significant. In addition, the families with lower per capita household income (0.082 times more if 10000 CNY lower) and located at the villages closer to forests (0.105 times more if 1 km closer) with smaller human population density (0.649 times more if 1000 km −2 smaller) are more likely to be visited by wild boar. Given the variables other than climate were unchanged, the decreasing trend of wild boar visits in central China is projected to become an increasing one in 14.1 years assuming the current trend persists under climate change. We suggest that the impacts of climate change should be considered for conserving wild boar and managing human-wild boar conflicts.