Optimizing energy futures in the Maldives: A study of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion technology energy Mixes

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) offers a stable baseload renewable energy source for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), reducing reliance on fossil fuels by harnessing the ocean's temperature gradient. Despite its potential, OTEC remains underdeveloped due to high capital costs and limited integration into SIDS-specific energy models. This study evaluates OTEC's feasibility, developing energy mix scenarios that incorporate OTEC, solar PV, waste-to-energy, and battery storage. Using a high-resolution bottom-up energy system model, it explores transition pathways (2025–2055), assessing OTEC's role in achieving a 100 % renewable system. Findings validate OTEC's technical and economic viability in the Maldives, achieving a low Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of 0.15 USD/kWh in fully renewable scenarios, where it provides reliable baseload power. The OTEC60 scenario, with 57 % renewable energy penetration, maintains the same low LCOE while minimizing capital costs. Sensitivity analysis identifies fuel prices and OTEC capital costs as key factors, highlighting the need for cost reductions. Carbon pricing disincentivizes fossil fuel use, making full renewable adoption more viable over time. These results position OTEC as a resilient energy solution for high-demand islands, providing policymakers with actionable insights for sustainable energy transitions in SIDS. • Proved viability of OTEC in the Maldives for 100 % renewable energy transition. • Found 60 % penetration of OTEC to be the most cost effective in all scenarios. • OTEC can reduce fossil fuel imports by 64 %, increasing energy security. • Confirmed OTEC as reliable baseload, easing storage and balancing solar-heavy grid. • Emphasized importance of feed in tariffs and carbon pricing to fund OTEC deployment.