Influence of weather elements on grapes growth, yield and disease incidence using Epidemiological modeling

Mathematical models play a vital role in crop agriculture to understand, predict and forecast the yield and disease incidence.This paper explores the utilization of mathematical model in grapes based on non-steady state equations possessing a nonlinear term.Theoretically, evaluated non-steady state concentration of leaf surface area for optimal strategy for grapes system presented.The analytical results of this study found to be matching with numerical results using MATLAB pdex4 function.Further, the proposed model validated with the field level data collected from Theni district, Tamil Nadu.Disease incidence and yield of grapes were highly influenced by weather variables.In addition, important aspects like disease intensity, infection rate and number of diseased leaves for secondary and primary infection studied in detail.