Climate, energy, and geopolitical risks in African stock markets: a comparative TVP-VAR and QVAR approach

Abstract This study seeks to investigate the spillover effects between uncertainty indexes and returns on African stock markets; explore the time-varying nature of these interactions using TVP-VAR and QVAR techniques; and assess the resilience of individual stock markets to shocks, with particular attention to Energy Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU), and Geopolitical Risks (GPRs) indexes. Accordingly, we employed two novel techniques, namely QVAR and TVP-VAR connectedness approaches to ascertain interdependencies under the bearish, bullish, and normal market regimes. The results for the QVAR approach revealed a total connectedness index (TCI) of 89.5%, suggesting substantial co-movement across markets during bearish market regime. Total connectedness index increased marginally to 89.7% under the bullish regime, reflecting an adaptive shift in shock propagation. Results from the TVP-VAR technique show a TCI of 71.97%, an indication of a reduced market interconnectedness amidst normal market regimes. We observe that CPU, EPU, and GPRs displayed heterogeneous spillover effects, with EPU and GPRs presenting pressing risks for majority of the markets. Additionally, the markets exhibited varying degrees of resilience under the various regimes, providing valuable insights for investors and policymakers on the nuances of the African stock market and shocks across various market regimes.