Spatiotemporal patterns of methane fluxes across alpine permafrost region on the Tibetan Plateau
Methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) emissions from thawing permafrost could amplify climate warming. However, long-term trajectory of net CH<sub>4</sub> balance in permafrost regions, particularly high-altitude permafrost regions, remains unknown. Based on literature synthesis and CLM5.0 model, we evaluate the contemporary and future CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region from 1989-2100. Here, we find that this permafrost region functions as a marginal CH<sub>4</sub> sink during 1989-2018 (-0.01 ± 0.01 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr⁻¹), and future trajectories diverge, with warming and wetting under low- and medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6/SSP2-4.5) driving persistent CH<sub>4</sub> emissions (0.07 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr⁻¹). By contrast, under higher emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0/SSP5-8.5), the region shifts to net emissions by mid-century but enhanced atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations strengthen sink, returning it to a net sink by century's end (-0.06 ~ -0.02 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr⁻¹). These results demonstrate that climate change and atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> dynamics jointly mediate the trajectory of alpine permafrost CH<sub>4</sub> balance.
Authors
- Shiting Yao
- Dan Kou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6116-9553)
- Yuanhe Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5399-4606)
- Shuqi Qin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7156-8785)
- Josep Peñuelas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7215-0150)
- Jinfeng Chang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4463-7778)
- Yi Xi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2654-4615)
- Xiaofeng Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6553-6514)
- Philippe Ciais (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943)
- Laiming Huang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9557-1778)
- Guibiao Yang
- Yutong Song (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9584-6188)
Institutions
- Qinghai University (CN)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of Eastern Finland (FI)
- Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR)
- San Diego State University (US)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- Université Paris-Saclay (FR)
- Beijing Botanical Garden (CN)
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR)
- CEA Paris-Saclay (FR)
- Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (ES)
- Institute of Botany (CN)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
- China National Botanical Garden
- Zhejiang University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2025-08-12
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62699-6
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Climate change and permafrost
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.60
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China