Spatial heterogeneity and integrated management of ecosystem service supply-demand in the tarim river basin

The Tarim River Basin (TRB)—China's largest dryland watershed—was evaluated at 1-km resolution for five benchmark years (2000–2020) to quantify the coupled dynamics of water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS) and food provision (FP). CS supply remained essentially unchanged at ≈ 5.5 t hm −2 , yet demand rose from 0.126 to 1.354 t hm −2 , driving the CS supply-demand index (CS_SDI) from 0.955 to 0.605. WY supply peaked at 230.8 m 3 hm −2 in 2005 but fell to 119.6 m 3 hm −2 by 2020, leaving WY_SDI persistently negative (−0.286 to −0.217). FP supply climbed from 0.025 to 0.033 t hm −2 and FP_SDI from 0.351 to 0.473. Spatially, high-supply–low-demand (HL) cells dominate CS (57.8 %) and WY (56.4 %), whereas FP is overwhelmingly low-supply–low-demand (62.8 %), underscoring the disconnect between mountain-front production zones and desert-edge oases. Correlation analysis reveals a strong WY–FP trade-off at city scale (r = −0.66) that weakens or reverses at county (r = −0.19) and grid scales (FP–CS r = +0.30) as crop area expands from 24 537 km 2 to 39 008 km 2 . Overlaying resource pressure, ecological intent and management urgency yields twelve composite zones. The Water-yield × Enhancement × High-priority (WEH) class alone spans 389306 km 2 (43.71 %), identifying where drip-irrigation retrofits, aquifer recharge and river-corridor restoration should be front-loaded. Two further classes—WEM (11.35 %) and CPM (9.00 %)—form a second tier requiring efficiency upgrades and carbon-sink protection. These multi-scale diagnostics provide a basin-wide, data-driven template for reallocating water rights, restoration funds and carbon offsets. • CS demand jumped × 10 (2000–2020), pushing CS_SDI from 0.96 to 0.61 in the TRB. • WY supply fell 48 % after a 2005 peak, from 230.8 to 119.6 m 3 hm −2 by 2020. • HL cells dominate: CS 57.8 %, WY 56.4 %; FP is LL across 62.8 % of the basin. • Cross-scale shifts: WY–FP r = −0.66 (city) but WY–CS r = 0.68 (county). • WEH zone (43.7 %, 389 306 km 2 ) prioritised for drip irrigation and recharge.