Correcting market failure for no-regret electric road investments under uncertainty

Several electric road system technologies that enable in-motion charging of electric vehicles are nearing market readiness. However, substantial contribution to decarbonization requires rapid deployment on an international scale. Investment is discouraged by prior research that has identified that declining battery costs may eventually leave the infrastructure a stranded asset. We explore under what circumstances electric roads offer effective and low-risk decarbonization of European heavy-duty road freight. Transport system dynamics are explored and quantified, through pairwise comparison of scenarios with and without electric road incorporation, using a purpose-built agent-based simulation (MOSTACHI). Prior stranded asset risks are confirmed, but we show that policy that encourages high electric road utilization can correct for market failures and make the infrastructure a no-regret investment in much of Europe - never yielding worse outcomes than not investing. Electric roads are shown to be an effective risk mitigation strategy, achieving market-driven phase-out of fossil fuels before 2050, also in pessimistic scenarios where static charging alone would be insufficient. Electric roads reduce levelized system cost by 0-17%, greenhouse gas emissions by 7-63% (2030 to 2050, cumulative) and battery mineral demand by 20-40%. Benefits are maximized with early and predictable deployment.