System dynamics modeling and simulation of exercise-based health promotion in the context of population aging

With the growing trend of global population aging, all facets of society are facing unprecedented challenges. How to enhance public enthusiasm for physical activity and how to promote public health through exercise have become an increasingly prominent topic of interest in academia. This paper uses literature analysis, policy analysis, system dynamics and other research methods to analyze the core indicators and key elements of exercise-based health promotion based on social support theory. Taking China as an example, this paper establishes a system dynamics model and conducts simulation analysis by adjusting the proportion of government support, social support and individual support. Research result: (1) under the existing development model, the proportion of the population exercising in China will be 40.39% in 2030, and the healthy-life expectancy will reach 72.66 years old, which can meet the stage requirements of the relevant policies; (2) Increasing the inputs of government support, social support, and individual support, respectively, can all have a positive impact on the exercise-based health promotion; (3) The Coordinated development mode yields the most favorable outcomes for health promotion through physical activity, as its impact effectiveness is significantly higher than that of the single-element priority development mode(Government support priority mode, Social support priority mode, Social support priority mode) Research conclusion: The overall development of exercise-based health promotion must consider the interaction of government support, social support and individual support, and allocate resources rationally.