Predicting Performance in a Military Hand‐to‐Hand Combat Course From Salivary Hormones, Psychological State, and Academic Performance

There are limited opportunities to study physiological and psychological factors that predict success in real world high stress environments where individuals must engage in controlled aggressive behaviour. All cadets attending the United States Military Academy must take a combatives course where they are taught to compete in hand-to-hand combat with peers and graded on performance. This study assessed, in this highly competitive environment, the physiological, psychological, and academic predictors of success in the course's final exam, a final hand-to-hand combat match. Male (n = 109) and female (n = 23) cadets completed self-report assessments of resilience (Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale; CD-RISC), mental toughness (Mental Toughness Questionnaire; MTQ-10), and aggression (Buss-Perry Aggression Questionnaire; BPAQ) upon enrolment in Combatives. Immediately preceding the final match, cadets provided saliva samples and completed mood state (Profile of Mood States; POMS), self-confidence and competitive state anxiety (Competitive State Anxiety Inventory; CSAI-2) questionnaires. Cortisol, testosterone, and secretory immunoglobulin A (SIgA) in saliva were assessed. Instructors provided match outcome, win versus loss, and each cadet's grade point averages (GPA; academic, military, and physical). Logistic regression analyses determined if physiological, psychological, or academic variables predicted match outcome. Sex, time of day, prior combatives experience, and midterm combatives performance were included as covariates. Greater self-confidence (OR [95% CI]; 1.13 [1.03, 1.25]) and a better physical GPA (4.51 [1.52, 13.42]) were associated with increased odds of winning the final match, with an overall classification accuracy of 68.9% and explained 31% of the variance in match outcome. Greater cognitive anxiety independently decreased the odds of winning (0.93 [0.87, 0.99]), but not when combined with self-confidence and physical GPA. No other factors significantly impacted odds of winning. Self-confidence and physical performance are key contributors to success in hand-to-hand combat and may mediate the influence of anxiety on performance.