Does Artificial Intelligence Promote Sustainable Growth of Exporting Firms?

Against the backdrop of the accelerated development of the global digital economy and the deepening advancement of the sustainable development agenda, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as the core driving force behind the new round of technological revolution, reshaping the competitive landscape of international trade. Chinese export companies are facing dual pressures from technological barriers imposed by developed countries and cost competition from emerging economies, making traditional development models unsustainable. In this context, exploring how AI technology can promote the sustainable growth of export companies holds significant theoretical and practical significance. This article employs a three-dimensional fixed-effects nonlinear quadratic model to empirically analyze the dynamic relationship between AI adoption and the growth of export companies, based on data from Chinese A-share listed export companies. The analysis results show that AI has a significant dynamic nonlinear effect on the growth of export companies, which is initially inhibitory and then becomes promotional. In the early stages, due to high technology adaptation costs, company growth is somewhat inhibited. However, as the technology matures, AI significantly enhances the company’s innovation capabilities and competitiveness, thereby promoting its long-term sustainable growth. This result remains valid after a series of robustness tests. This effect is significant in non-state-owned enterprises and medium-to-low technology industries, but not in state-owned enterprises and high-technology industries. Three pathways—enterprise efficiency, innovation investment, and levels of digital factor investment—enhance this dynamic effect. Finally, based on the above research findings, this study proposes policy recommendations for enterprises to leverage artificial intelligence technology to promote the growth of export companies.