Predictors of Post-18 Educational Aspirations and Expectations for the COVID-19 Generation

This study used data from the COVID Social Mobility and Opportunities (COSMO) Study, to examine young people’s university aspirations and post-18 education expectations during COVID-19 in relation to their demographic and socio-economic position, school engagement, education disruption, and attitudes to education. Through a series of binary regression analyses, the findings showed the important role school engagement (in the form of online lesson attendance, schoolwork and teacher contact) played in young people’s university aspirations and post-18 education plans, especially at the height of the pandemic. Education disruption and locus of control were found to contribute to young people’s aspirations and post-18 expectations. The findings also highlighted the influence of gender, ethnicity and socioeconomic position regarding university aspirations and expectations, laying bare the obstacles in accessing learning faced by disadvantaged young people at a crucial time in their education. The findings contribute to continued debates about educational aspirations in the post COVID-19 world and have policy implications especially as this generation of young people are still in education. They may also contribute to discussions on ways of supporting this COVID-19 generation through fiscal changes and widening participation policies that extend to post-18 education and early career development.