Local-scale analysis of projected climate change impact on Arabica coffee distribution in selected districts of southwestern Ethiopia: Are the future production areas commercially viable?

Climate change is reshaping the geographies of coffee production globally, impacting the livelihoods of coffee farmers and the international coffee market. A local-scale understanding of these shifts is essential for designing effective adaptation and policy planning. This study assessed the local-scale (district-level) impact of projected climate change on coffee area suitability and how future production geographies intersect with the forest cover in five major coffee-growing districts of southwestern Ethiopia. The study models coffee distribution using an ensemble of three machine-learning algorithms (Maxent, SVM, and RF) to predict suitable areas presently and in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. The models perform well in predicting suitable areas with an AUC value of >0.96 for Ale, Goma, Gera, and Yayu and > 0.86 for Limu Seka. Rainfall and temperature variables are the most important factors for predicting coffee area suitability. Under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, the study predicts an overall increase in suitable areas in Ale (+19 %), Gera (+41 %), Goma (+4 %), Limu Seka (+124 %), and Yayu (+21 %) at the end of the century, while most current production areas remain suitable. In the SSP5–8.5 scenario, however, we expect suitable areas to increase in Ale (+16 %), Gera (+52 %), Limu Seka (+71 %), and losses in Goma (−0.5 %), and Yayu (−47 %). Problematically, projected suitable coffee production sites overlap by 25 % to 90 % with areas currently designated as forest under the Global Forest Cover 2020 map, potentially placing production in those areas off limits for export to the European Union under the provisions of the EUDR 2023/115 regulation. We therefore conclude that many areas in the region that could become newly suitable for coffee production may not be commercially viable. The heterogeneity of primary local drivers of coffee suitability means that micro-scale spatial analyses of climate change impacts on coffee production could provide valuable insights for other regions in planning targeted and effective climate adaptation strategies. • Rainfall and temperature are the dominant predictors of Arabica coffee suitability across all study sites in southwestern Ethiopia. • Suitable areas for Arabica coffee are projected to expand by the end of the century under both emission scenarios, with most existing production areas remaining suitable, while notable losses are expected in Yayu under high-emission scenarios. • Projected suitable areas significantly overlap with forested highland areas and may not be commercially viable for export to the European Union due to restrictions under the EUDR 2023/115 regulation. • Micro-scale climate impact analysis captures fine-scale variation in topography, soils, and microclimate, which is essential for developing targeted, site-specific adaptation strategies.