Can off-grid household solar provide sustainable energy for all? Adoption and sustained use of solar technologies in Malawi

Malawi has one of the lowest rates of electricity access globally, particularly in rural areas where just 5.6 % of households have electricity access. Like many African countries, Malawi is working towards universal electricity access by promoting decentralized solar technologies. We analyze data from a two-wave quasi-experimental quantitative impact evaluation involving 1371 households in rural Malawi to characterize solar technologies and their capacity, explore determinants of adoption of solar home systems and standalone solar panels, and characterize the dynamics of adoption and dis-adoption. We observe a 4.5 percentage point increase in solar ownership over the 12-month study period, with 33.7 % of households owning a solar device by 2023. However, solar device capacity is low (median capacity of 6 W), limiting use to mobile phone charging and limited lighting services. Socioeconomic status and financial inclusion are important factors influencing solar adoption. Wealthier households are 2.5 times more likely to adopt solar home systems and 1.8 times more likely to adopt standalone solar panels. Between 2022 and 2023, 10.8 % of solar-owning households adopted additional solar devices, with wealthier households 30 % more likely to adopt additional devices. In contrast, 28.6 % of solar-owners dis-adopted. Our results highlight challenges for achieving universal energy access through household solar technologies. Low energy capacity suggests limited potential to provide high quality energy services. We recommend a more explicit focus on device capacity in measuring energy access, and targeted financial support and incentives to enhance the adoption, scale up, and long-term use of solar technologies.