Winds of change in Swedish energy policy - The limits to neoliberalism as policy paradigm and as political rationality

Swedish energy policy has been characterised by increasing politicisation and polarisation over the last decade. A parliamentary consensus on the merits of market-based wind power expansion on a large scale, and a vision of a 100 % renewable energy system to 2040, was replaced by a plan for nuclear power revival and withdrawn state support for wind power in the elections of 2022. The change of government marked a radical change in the long-term outlook for the energy system, signifying a break not only with the plans for continued wind power expansion but also with the decades-long agreement to not extend state support for new nuclear power. In the paper, we analyse these developments through transcripts of Parliamentary debates 2008–2024. We trace shifting coalitions in Parliament and argumentative patterns. Using Peter Hall's theory of different orders of policy change and theories on neoliberalism, we argue that Swedish energy policy has been characterised by a series of first- and second order changes to establish a neoliberal policy paradigm. As almost all Parliamentary parties coalesced under this paradigm, discursive ground was opened for an emerging conservative, pro-nuclear coalition to challenge the consensus and politicise energy policy. Its success, we argue, amounts to a policy paradigm shift. Distinguishing between neoliberalism as policy paradigm and political rationality, we conclude the paper with a discussion of their relation, and the extent to which a challenge to the former is also a challenge to the latter. • Swedish energy policy has undergone a policy paradigm shift. • It constitutes a shift away from neoliberal energy policy. • It does not constitute a challenge to neoliberalism as political rationality. • Conservatives have taken a strong-state discourse position. • Left and green parties have adopted market-liberal rhetoric.