Assessing the impact of climate change on desertification in Africa: A comparative analysis and projections based on CMIP6

This study assesses the impact of climate change on the probability of desertification in Africa. Using CMIP6 climate models and a comparative analysis of projections based on SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. We classified regions at risk of desertification using machine learning models such as Random Forest (RF) and performed spatial analysis using Google Earth Engine (GEE). With an accuracy of 0.8991, the GFDL-ESM4 model combined with RF shows a remarkable overall accuracy. The study predicts how desertification will change under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, with an increase in the probability of desertification, particularly in the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa. Both scenarios increase the number of critical and vulnerable areas, particularly in semi-arid regions, highlighting the importance of sustainable land management and emission reductions to limit the impacts of climate change.