Impact of green and blue spaces on ecosystem services in Beijing: spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms

Abstract Non-Technical Summary As cities like Beijing expand rapidly, green and blue spaces (GBS)—essential for ecosystem services (ESs) such as clean air, flood control, and recreation—are increasingly threatened. This 20-year study examines how urban expansion and policy interventions have shaped Beijing’s GBS. While green initiatives have increased natural areas, unchecked urban sprawl has fragmented these spaces, reducing their environmental benefits. Satellite data and urban planning analyses underscore a key lesson: maintaining well-connected natural zones is critical for urban resilience. These findings are broadly applicable for rapidly growing cities globally, urging urban planners to integrate ecological conservation with development, and to safeguard healthy environments and vibrant communities. Technical Summary This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban GBS in Beijing, evaluating their essential role in delivering ESs and strengthening urban resilience. Although China has achieved substantial progress in urban greening, the ecological impacts of rapid urbanization on GBS configuration and connectivity have not been comprehensively quantified. Using an integrated analytical framework combining principal component analysis and multiple linear regression, we reveal how urban development strategies have shaped GBS dynamics over two decades. A spatially explicit analysis, utilizing geographically weighted regression, further elucidates the heterogeneous relationships among the normalized difference vegetation index, human footprint index, and ESs delivery capacity. Notably, socioeconomic incentives and green infrastructure governance—especially objective indicators such as forest, garden, and greenspace area—have effectively driven GBS expansion. However, urban expansion has led to pronounced fragmentation of peri-urban GBS, suggesting potential degradation of their ecosystem service support functions. These findings emphasize the need for adaptive GBS management strategies that balance ecological conservation with sustainable urban growth in rapidly developing cities. Social Media Summary Urban growth fragments green and blue spaces, reducing vital ecosystem services. Balancing conservation with development is essential for sustainable cities.