Geospatial modeling of snow avalanches on the Sar Mountains, Balkan Peninsula

Snow avalanches are among the most significant natural hazards worldwide in high mountain areas. Mapping the spatial distribution of avalanches is one of the initial steps in avalanche management. In this study, geospatial modeling was performed for the territory of the Sar Mountains on a total area of 1602 km2. The first step in the research is to collect data on past avalanche occurrences in Serbia and North Macedonia and create a database in geographic information systems (GIS). The second step involves the application of the SAFI-Flow-R method and the analysis of three natural and anthropogenic factors: snow cover, terrain slope, and land use. The third step involves modeling (propagation) of avalanches in the Flow-R 2.0 software package, and the creation of synthesis maps based on the thickness of the triggered snow layer. Based on the law of friction and other software algorithms, avalanche modeling was performed from the starting zone through the movement zone to the accumulation zone. The results show that 26.6% of the area is susceptible to snow avalanches, with a potentially triggered snow layer thickness of 50 cm. The fourth step is the analysis and zoning of vulnerable settlements and the proposal of environmental protection measures. The settlements susceptible to avalanches are Restelica, Brod, Musnikovo, and the "Brezovica" ski center in Serbia, while in North Macedonia, the settlements of Bozovce, Vesala, and the "Popova Sapka" ski center are vulnerable. The results obtained may be useful for decision-makers, national park managers, and mountain rescue services in Serbia and North Macedonia in terms of adequate environmental management and adoption of protection measures.