Management and planning of population sustainability in rural settlements based on geographical-economic variables (tourism, agriculture and handicrafts)

Taking into account the declining rural population and the issue of sustainable development in rural areas of Uzbekistan, this study will analyze the geo-economic contribution (tourism, agriculture, and handicrafts) to population sustainability management and planning. Research facts were collected using a mixed method (quantitative and qualitative) that included statistical processing of secondary data (2021 census, 49.5% of rural Uzbekistan), interviews with local stakeholders, and fieldwork in 10 sample rural settlements (e.g., Fergana’s farming areas and Khorezm’s tourist areas). Results confirm that the share of agriculture in rural economy accounting for 32.7% of household earnings has the greatest impact on the sustenance of population, while tourism with an annual growth rate of 12% (over a period of over 5 years) and handicrafts with the creation of 18% indirect employment are strategic complements. Threats from water scarcity (20% reduction in water resources in a decade) and youth migration (net migration rate of -4.1 in rural areas) challenge the sustainability of population. According to the research, through enhanced integrated value chains and incentive policies, value chain connections among these three industries can be encouraged to create sustainable employment.