Price Volatility and Risk Measurement of EU Carbon Futures under Structural Mutation

The EU's carbon emissions trading system, including carbon futures, has experienced significant price swings since its launch, affecting emission goals and economic activities. Existing research on this volatility has primarily focused on the first two phases, overlooking the third phase and new patterns emerging in the fourth phase (since 2021). This study utilizes phase 3–4 EUA futures data, applying the Bai-Perron test to identify structural breaks and incorporating them into a GARCH model to analyze volatility and market risks. Results indicate that the price series has breakpoints; the adjusted GARCH model improves its fit and reveals price dynamics, although risk measurement may overfit.