The Role of Sequencing Economics in Agglomeration: A Contrast with Tinbergen’s Rule

In this paper, we present the concept of “sequencing economics”, consisting of (A) segmentation, (B) construction sequencing, and (C) functions. An agglomeration is organized into segments, and sequencing economics examines the sequential process of efficiently building such segments. The functions (C) of the segments act as a master switch, an accelerator, a brake, etc. in the implementation of agglomeration policy. In this paper, we identify a master switch and an accelerator in scientific city agglomeration policy and draw two conclusions. First, in agglomeration policy, the construction of the master switch lowers “transport costs”, as derived from the monocentric city model of spatial economics by Fujita and Krugman. Second, the accelerator segment represents the activities of the service sector that have the highest forward-linkage effect in an input–output relationship. Regarding science city agglomeration policy, it can be concluded that the master switch is high-speed rail and the accelerator is research and education activities. In this paper, the new scientific urban agglomeration that emerges from monocentric cities is referred to as railroad-driven agglomeration (RDA), which is a type of transit-oriented development (TOD). This paper demonstrates that the Tsukuba Express, as a case study of RDA, caused the agglomeration of Tsukuba Science City. This paper establishes the concept of sequencing economics, a policy implementation rule that differs from Tinbergen’s rule. The latter is based on the concept of simultaneous equations, whereas the rule of sequencing economics is based on sequential equations. RDA enables middle-income countries to surpass their middle-income status.