Re-investment Rebound Dynamic in the Cement Industry

The cement industry is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, making its decarbonization essential for achieving international climate targets. While the industry employs strategies such as improving efficiency, enhancing resource recovery, using low-carbon feedstocks and fuels, and developing lower clinker-to-cement products, environmental assessments increasingly raise concerns about rebound effects. One significant form of rebound is the “re-investment rebound effect”, where monetary savings from decarbonization initiatives are reinvested into activities that produce additional emissions, thereby offsetting some of the potential environmental benefits. This study defines the re-investment rebound effect for decarbonization initiatives, using the cement industry as a case study. We quantify the effect using data reported to the CDP (formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project), categorizing the effects by Scope and initiative type, identifying areas most and least susceptible to rebound. The results indicate that equipment modernization and clinker reduction efforts are most vulnerable to re-investment rebound, whereas automation, fuel use reduction, and enhanced process control show the least rebound vulnerability. The study also finds no significant correlation between carbon intensity of firms and the re-investment rebound potential of their decarbonization actions. This work can help inform targeted policies that enhance the effectiveness of industrial decarbonization strategies by equipping production engineers and corporate entities with insights to help address and mitigate unintended emissions rebounds.