Modelling the economic potential of the agricultural sector in the Carpathian region of Ukraine

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to assess and forecast the economic potential of the agricultural sector in the Carpathian region of Ukraine based on economic-and-mathematical modelling. Methodology / approach. The results of the study were obtained based on the development of an economic-and-mathematical model for searching for the optimal production structure in the agricultural sector of the Carpathian region of Ukraine. It was based on the criterion of maximising the value of the final product, taking into account three levels of productivity, variability of sales prices for each type of product, and established restrictions on the level of marginal prices, available area for growing crops, food needs of the population of the region, and other regulations that affect the forecasting of economic potential. Results. According to the results of the study, it was determined that the economic potential of the agricultural sector of the studied region with optimal use of 2.7 million hectares of various types of agricultural land is from EUR 6.3 to 10 billion in terms of the value of the final product, depending on the achieved level of production productivity and taking into account the variability of sales prices. An increase in the region’s economic potential is possible based on a change in the sectoral structure of production in favour of increasing the volume of livestock products, the sale of which receives a higher value per 1 hectare of land compared to the cultivation of fodder grains for export. An increase in the share of vegetable fruit and berry plantings in the structure is also justified, including using part of the pastures and hayfields that are not used for fodder production. Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, a forecast of the economic potential of the agricultural sector of the Carpathian region of Ukraine was carried out based on the developed economic-and-mathematical model. The model takes into account different levels of cultivation productivity for each type of product and the variability of sales prices while achieving the optimal balance of crop and livestock production to ensure food security for the population of the region and the formation of export opportunities. Practical value / implications. The obtained research results will contribute to making informed strategic decisions in implementing effective agrarian and food policy. It contributes to increasing the economic potential of the agricultural sector in the Carpathian region of Ukraine based on achieving a higher level of efficiency in the use of agricultural land, labour, and material and technical resources.