Tripartite Evolution Game of Intelligent Carbon Reduction Transformation in the Construction Industry: A Comparative Analysis of Carbon-Tax Incentives and Financial Subsidies

With the rapid development of intelligent technologies, the intelligent decarbonization transformation of construction firms has garnered widespread attention from many countries and regions. Based on the theory of innovation diffusion, this paper innovatively examined the policy response from the perspectives of leading and following firms. By constructing a tripartite evolutionary game model, the different impacts of carbon tax incentives and economic subsidy mechanisms on the intelligent transformation behavior of firms were explored. The study found that (1) carbon tax incentives and economic subsidies effectively promote the realization of intelligent transformation of construction firms, and the social benefits brought about by the transformation further enhance the government’s motivation to implement the policy, forming a virtuous circle; (2) social benefits are an important basis for government policy-making—when the social benefits of the transformation are considerable, the government tends to implement economic subsidy policies; conversely, carbon tax incentive policies are more appropriate; (3) there is an optimal range for subsidy policies, and the government should cautiously set the level of subsidies to ensure the sustainability and effectiveness of the policies; and (4) efficient carbon reduction and tax incentives can effectively alleviate the long-term tax burden on firms, whereas adequate government subsidies help firms reduce the financial burden in the early stages of transformation. The two incentive mechanisms for the intelligent transformation of the construction industry proposed in this paper highlight the crucial role of policy tools in driving the industry’s low-carbon transition. The research provides theoretical foundations and practical guidance for policy formulation.