A Precarious Pact: Scoping the Risks of a U.S.-DRC Minerals Deal Amidst Instability and Balkanization Fears

Background: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) possesses significant reserves of critical minerals, attracting international interest for resource development. However, the nation’s complex operational environment, characterized by political instability, armed conflict, and governance deficits, particularly in its eastern provinces, presents considerable challenges to foreign engagement. This review examines the potential implications of a prospective minerals deal between the United States (U.S.) and the DRC. Methods: A scoping review was conducted, synthesizing information from academic literature, policy analyses, and reputable media reports. The review focused on identifying multifaceted risks associated with a U.S.-DRC minerals agreement. Findings: Analysis reveals that such a deal carries substantial risks, including the potential exacerbation of existing conflicts, empowerment of non-state armed actors, deepening of de facto balkanization in eastern DRC, and U.S. entanglement in complex regional dynamics. Furthermore, significant human rights and reputational hazards are evident. Historical regulatory efforts concerning conflict minerals have demonstrated limited success in fundamentally altering resource-conflict mechanisms. Recent U.S. private sector interest, exemplified by engagements in projects like the Manono lithium deposit, occurs within this challenging context of existing disputes and governance issues. Conclusion: Without robust preconditions addressing governance reform, comprehensive conflict resolution, and enhanced transparency, a broad U.S.-DRC minerals agreement poses a high risk of severe negative consequences, potentially undermining long-term stability in the DRC and the surrounding region.