Effects of land use change on ecosystem service value under different scenarios in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area

Assessing ecosystem service value (ESV) across scenarios offers vital decision-making references for ecosystem management. This study estimated the 2030 ESVs of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), an area with severe ecological degradation, under four scenarios, including natural development (S1), urban development (S2), cultivated land protection (S3) and ecological protection (S4). First, the historical land use dataset was derived from the Landsat and Sentinel-2 images using the classification method of random forest. Second, the FLUS model predicted 2030 land use patterns under the four scenarios. Finally, ESVs were calculated using the equivalent factor method. Results showed ESVs of ￥271.285 billion (S1), ￥266.257 billion (S2), ￥268.408 billion (S3) and ￥274.728 billion (S4) all lower than 2020 levels. The smallest reduction occurred under S4. Declines primarily stemmed from losses of woodland and water bodies.