Long-term forecast of the development of the Siberian crop industry in the context of global climate change

The article is devoted to forecasting the impact of global climate change on the development of the crop industry in Siberia. As a result of previous studies, it has been revealed that the shift of natural and climatic zones by 2050 will lead to an improvement in the conditions of the crop industry in certain regions, such as the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republics of Tyva and Khakassia. The Krasnoyarsk Territory will experience the largest increase in the average annual temperature – by 2–3 °C by 2050, which will lead to an increase in the duration of the growing season and create the opportunity for growing late-ripening varieties of crops. The predicted changes in the soil cover under conditions of global climate change are shown, mainly the reduction of organic matter in the soil, its mineralization and erosion. At the same time, the shift of natural and climatic zones will create conditions for the expansion of acreage to the north of the macroregion, mainly due to the introduction of fallow lands into circulation. These lands will be used mainly to increase the production of grain and leguminous crops, and, for example, in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, oilseed crops will increase. At the same time, the involvement of new territories in agricultural turnover in the context of global warming is associated with certain risks, such as an increase in the number of natural disasters, degradation of permafrost soils and disruption of the ecological balance.