CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON ACCIDENT RATE

One of the most important groups of factors influencing accidents are natural and climatic conditions. Correlation analysis showed the existence of a connection between environmental factors and the number of accidents.The results of the linear regression analysis show a high percentage of average error, exceeding 20%. During the nonlinear regression analysis, significant environmental factors for positive and negative temperatures were determined. Complete factorial experiments were constructed and generalized multifactorial models of the influence of environmental factors on accidents were obtained, allowing one to predict the number of accidents and select the optimal system of measures, including types, methods and duration of impacts in order to ensure safe road surface indicators.