The vulnerability of orchids in honduras: assessing loss and resilience under climate change

Abstract Climatic niches play a pivotal role in shaping global and regional patterns of species distribution. Tropical rainforests, renowned for their biodiversity and high levels of endemism, are among the most endangered biomes on the planet. In Honduras, which has over 8,000 vascular plant species, 595 of them are orchids. This study represents the first analysis of how future climate projections (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) could impact the climatic niches of orchids across the country’s 112,492 km² area, of which approximately 56% (63,000 km²) is still covered by forest. Using the largest available database of Honduran orchids (retaining 437 species and 3,681 occurrence records) and ordination models, we assessed the potential impact of climate change on orchid niche distributions. The results indicate that Honduras is projected to experience warmer and drier conditions. By the years 2020–2099, this shift in climate is likely to result in a displacement of 88–238 (20–54%) species of orchids depending on the climate scenario. These findings align with recent studies on other taxonomic groups in Honduras, suggesting a troubling shift in climatic niches among some of the country’s most significant plant groups. This potential shift poses significant risks to orchid species and highlights the urgent need for conservation efforts that address the effects of climate change on biodiversity. The species list provide here, could be used by conservation practises to inform urgent management strategies.