From Scholz to Merz: The capricious politics of the post-Merkel German chancellorship

Abstract The performance of chief executives depends on the resources and skills incumbents bring to bear, and the contexts in which they operate. Regarding the latter, the legacies of former leaders mark an understudied factor that shapes the opportunity structures of their successors. This article provides an assessment of the evolution of the German chancellorship since the departure of long-term leader Angela Merkel (2005–21). Her two successors in the office of chancellor, Olaf Scholz (2021–25) and Friedrich Merz (since 2025), displayed fundamentally different political personalities, strategies, and styles. Scholz tried to win office and present himself as “another Merkel.” While this facilitated his rise to power, it also played a role in his downfall. Merz, by contrast, started out as a candidate framing himself as an “anti-Merkel” as much as an “anti-Scholz.” With hindsight, however, both labels seemed to be largely owed to his role as opposition leader and were conspicuously dropped right at the beginning of his chancellorship. The future of the German chancellorship, and Germany’s future role in Europe and the world, will be strongly shaped by the ongoing transformation of the German party system.