Temporal Evolution and Projections of Violence Against Women in Brazil: Scenarios from 2013 to 2033

This study aims to analyze the historical evolution of violence against women across all life stages in Brazil between 2013 and 2023. Using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and population projections from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, an ecological time-series study was conducted. Trends were assessed through Joinpoint regression, while future projections utilized the Prophet machine learning model. The Random Forest model identified the most impactful variables for prediction. The study reveals alarming trends, with a projected 95% increase in violence rates over the next decade. Variables such as firearm use and known perpetrators were highlighted as significant contributors. The results underscore the urgency of targeted public policies and predictive approaches to effectively combat gender-based violence. Limitations include underreporting and data gaps, emphasizing the need for improvements in data collection.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Interpersonal Violence
Published
2025-08-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/08862605251355969
Primary Topic
Intimate Partner and Family Violence
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Temporal Evolution and Projections of Violence Against Women in Brazil: Scenarios from 2013 to 2033

Mariana Cavalcante Martins, Fabiane do Amaral Gubert, Jamylle Lucas Diniz, Janaína Fonseca Victor Coutinho et al.
Journal of Interpersonal Violence
Intimate Partner and Family Violence
article

Temporal Evolution and Projections of Violence Against Women in Brazil: Scenarios from 2013 to 2033

Mariana Cavalcante Martins, Fabiane do Amaral Gubert, Jamylle Lucas Diniz, Janaína Fonseca Victor Coutinho, Viviane Mamede Vasconcelos Cavalcante, Riksberg Leite Cabral, Ana Carolina Ribeiro Tamboril, Mônica Oliveira Batista Oriá, Thaís Rodrigues de Albuquerque, Manuela de Mendonça Figueirêdo Coelho, William Caracas Moreira, Beatriz Alves de Oliveira
article en

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the historical evolution of violence against women across all life stages in Brazil between 2013 and 2023. Using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and population projections from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, an ecological time-series study was conducted. Trends were assessed through Joinpoint regression, while future projections utilized the Prophet machine learning model. The Random Forest model identified the most impactful variables for prediction. The study reveals alarming trends, with a projected 95% increase in violence rates over the next decade. Variables such as firearm use and known perpetrators were highlighted as significant contributors. The results underscore the urgency of targeted public policies and predictive approaches to effectively combat gender-based violence. Limitations include underreporting and data gaps, emphasizing the need for improvements in data collection.

Journal of Interpersonal Violence
Universidade Federal do Ceará (BR), Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Ceará (BR)
Gender equality
Openalex Percentile: Top 75%
Intimate Partner and Family Violence
DOISourceOpenAlex
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