Impact of climate change on the distribution of Ligustrum leucanthum using MaxEnt modeling

Anthropogenic climate change has hastened habitat loss and fragmentation for wild animals and vegetation. However, the absence of sufficient and trustworthy information on their geographical distribution has impeded effective conservation management strategies. Ligustrum leucanthum is a drought-resistant tree species that can thrive in heavy metal-contaminated soil. Nevertheless, the significant environmental factors that shape its distribution and the changes in its geographical ranges under future climate change scenarios remain unknown. We utilized 84 occurrence records of L. leucanthum along with 51 different environmental factors and employed MaxEnt modeling to predict the current and future suitable habitats for this species. We also analyzed the significant environmental variables that play a role in determining its geographical distribution. We found that water vapor pressure of January (34.3%), the normalized difference vegetation index (27.5%), solar radiation of April (14.8%), and temperature seasonality (4.8%) were the main variables factors limiting the potential geographical distribution of L. leucanthum. Our model predicted 8.64 × 10⁵ km² of suitable habitat for L. leucanthum based on 25th percentile thresholds. However, the highly suitable habitat for L. leucanthum is only about 0.55 × 10⁵ km². Under future climate change scenario, MaxEnt predicts an increase in suitable habitat. Nevertheless, there are still some areas that are at low elevations or are too dry or hot and are predicted to disappear. Our results will aid in the identification of additional locations and possible habitats of L. leucanthum, as well as the creation and application of conservation, management, and cultivation methods for this species.