Integrating data-driven and physics-based approaches for robust wind power prediction: A comprehensive ML-PINN-Simulink framework

This study presents a comprehensive hybrid forecasting framework that synergizes machine learning algorithms, MATLAB Simulink-based physical modeling, and Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to advance wind power prediction accuracy for a 10 kW Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG)-based Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS). Using a complete annual dataset of 8,760 hourly wind speed observations from the MERRA-2 platform, ten machine learning algorithms were systematically evaluated, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and an advanced Stacking ensemble model. The Stacking ensemble demonstrated superior performance, achieving an exceptional R² of 0.998 and RMSE of 0.11, significantly outperforming individual algorithms. A detailed MATLAB Simulink model was developed to replicate turbine behaviour under identical wind conditions, physically, providing robust validation for ML predictions. The Simulink model achieved satisfactory performance under nominal wind conditions but exhibited computational constraints during extreme wind scenarios, leading to compromised output reliability. To bridge the gap between pure data-driven learning and physical realism, a Physics-Informed Neural Network was subsequently integrated to combine data-driven learning with physical constraints, using both observational data and physics-based synthetic datasets. Comparative analysis revealed that ML models deliver superior speed and accuracy for operational forecasting, while the PINN framework maintains physical consistency with competitive predictive performance. The framework's practical applicability was demonstrated through a 2026 case study for southern Tamil Nadu, which incorporated projected environmental changes, including a 0.6% annual decline in wind speed. This real-world validation showcased the framework's adaptability to evolving climatic conditions and long-term forecasting capabilities. This integrated methodology provides a robust foundation for enhancing wind power integration into modern energy systems, while maintaining both computational accuracy and physical interpretability, thereby supporting sustainable energy transition goals.