SIMULATION MODEL OF THE SPREAD AND OCCURRENCE OF FOREST FIRES TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WIND DYNAMICS

The article presents the development of a simulation model for the spread of forest fires, considering wind dynamics, which was implemented in the AnyLogic environment. The model is based on a synthesis of cellular automata and agent-based approaches, allowing for the consideration of spatial heterogeneity in forest cover, topographical features of the area, and dynamic changes in meteorological conditions. The mathematical apparatus of the model consists of modified Rotermel equations, supplemented by the parameterization of wind action through a vector field that considers average velocity and turbulent components. Qualitative changes in the fire dynamics are observed in this model. The results obtained emphasize the significance of considering wind dynamics and non-linear effects when simulating forest fires. The developed model can be used to address the challenges of operational forecasting of fire-hazardous situations, optimizing fire extinguishing resources, and assessing the effectiveness of firefighting measures. Future research opportunities lie in integrating real-time remote sensing data and developing adaptive control algorithms for extreme conditions.