Response Mechanisms of Vegetation Productivity to Water Variability in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas of China: A Decoupling Analysis of Soil Moisture and Precipitation

Arid and semi-arid areas serve a critical regulatory function within the global carbon cycle. Understanding the response mechanisms of vegetation productivity to variations in moisture availability represents a fundamental scientific challenge in elucidating terrestrial carbon dynamics. This study systematically disentangled the respective influences of summer surface soil moisture (RSM) and precipitation (PRE) on gross primary productivity (GPP) across arid and semi-arid regions of China from 2000 to 2022. Utilizing GPP datasets alongside correlation analysis, ridge regression, and data binning techniques, the investigation yielded several key findings: (1) Both GPP and RSM exhibited significant upward trends within the study area, whereas precipitation showed no statistically significant trend; notably, GPP demonstrated the highest rate of increase at 0.455 Cg m−2 a−1. (2) Decoupling analysis indicated a coupled relationship between RSM and PRE; however, their individual effects on GPP were not merely a consequence of this coupling. Controlling for evapotranspiration and root-zone soil moisture interference, the analysis revealed that under conditions of elevated RSM, the average increase in summer–autumn GPP (SAGPP) was 0.249, significantly surpassing the increase observed under high-PRE conditions (−0.088). Areas dominated by RSM accounted for 62.13% of the total study region. Furthermore, examination of the aridity gradient demonstrated that the predominance of RSM intensified with increasing aridity, reaching its peak influence in extremely arid zones. This research provides a quantitative assessment of the differential impacts of RSM and PRE on vegetation productivity in China’s arid and semi-arid areas, thereby offering a vital theoretical foundation for improving predictions of terrestrial carbon sink dynamics under future climate change scenarios.