Dual Counter-Deterrence: Evaluating the Implications of a Formalized Nuclear Alliance Between China and Russia

The balance of power among the three main nuclear powers is shifting as a result of tactical and strategic military decisions made by the U.S., China, and Russia. The U.S.'s economic and political expansion in Europe and the Indo-Pacific presents simultaneous threats to both China and Russia. In response to these perceived threats, China and Russia are increasingly strengthening their bilateral strategic relations. This study seeks to examine the potential prospects of establishing a formal military alliance between China and Russia, with a particular focus on the strategic-nuclear domain. It answers the questions about how the nuclear alliance between Moscow and Beijing could change the balance of power, what it would mean for both states, their rivals and the international system as a whole. The methodology used in the research is based on an empirical collection of evidence from previous works on the theme, which were structured using SWOT analysis categories. After interpreting the result of the study, it was found out that neither Moscow, nor Beijing needs to form a strategic-nuclear alliance with one another, but if prerequisites for this occur, they would most likely be linked to the possibility of direct nuclear threat from the U.S. as a result of a strategic miscalculation. Thus, the alliance would be based on those conditions that would arise once Russia starts strategically supporting China or vice versa, in response to nuclear threat from Washington and its allies. However, both countries must maintain and strengthen their strategic nuclear cooperation in order to effectively demonstrate their ability to deter the U.S. and maintain their positions in the international arena.