Modeling the Trade and Economic Cooperation between Ukraine and Poland Using the Gravitational Model

An important aspect of the article was the study and understanding of the significance of the gravitational method, which is used in economics to predict vectors of change in cases of changes in initial data. By analyzing and systematizing the scientific works of foreign and domestic scholars, empirical analysis was conducted comparing the consistent model of the gravitational method and an extended model that incorporates the conflict factor. A crucial component in the use of the gravitational model is the analysis of initial data and the choice of the model itself – for a more efficient and better analysis of the current state of trade between partner countries. An integral aspect of the analysis and implementation in classical gravitational modeling was the introduction of the conflict factor – for a more detailed and qualitative analysis of the obtained results. The results of two variations of the gravitational model were computed and compared, along with a further comparison to obtain a clear result regarding the discrepancies in data when using the conflict factor. It was determined that this factor plays a significant role in the construction and analysis of the gravitational model – through the specification and addition of risks in the process of analyzing trade turnover between countries. Based on the calculations of this study, it can be stated that there is a complete opposition of the ?-coefficients when calculating similar gravitational models. The classical model of calculations contains stable statistical information and helps to analyze the state of economic relations in a calm environment more effectively. The extended model included an additional variable, which significantly changed the final structure of the calculations and made them more logical and accurate than those of the classical model. The addition of the conflict factor can directly change the understanding of the gravitational model and allow its use for computing the factors of war, sanctions, epidemics, and disasters. The conclusions of this study may be used in the future for analyzing and developing strategies for the post-war reconstruction of economic activity and the directions of its development in the context of Ukraine’s European integration.