The Current Trends and Predictive Scenarios for the Development of the Global Service Market under Conditions of Global Instability

The article explores the current trends and predictive scenarios for the development of the global service market during the global instability caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, inflation fluctuations, and transformations in tariff policies. The article identifies the main factors shaping the dynamics of demand and supply in the services sector, including the activation of high-tech segments, the increasing role of informational, financial, and professional services, as well as regional asymmetry in export-import activity. Asia, Europe, and North America show the highest growth rates in service exports, while countries in Africa and the Middle East face challenges, particularly in the transport sector. The service market remains the most vulnerable to external factors, particularly in areas that require physical mobility (tourism, transport), and is also challenging to account for statistically due to the specifics of service delivery channels. Special attention is paid to the analysis of statistical data for the years 2023–2024, during which services gradually became a key driver of global trade, reaching a record share of 26.4% of the total volume in 2024, demonstrating stable growth even in the face of declining business activity in other sectors. Possible scenarios for the further development of the global services market in 2025–2026 are outlined, taking into account geoeconomic risks, inflationary processes, and changes in consumer priorities. The optimistic scenario implies continued growth in trade volumes, with a positive contribution to the growth of service exports from all regions. At the same time, there is a risk of pessimistic scenarios materializing in the event of escalating conflicts, new protectionist measures, and financial volatility. Conclusions have been drawn regarding the necessity of adapting national strategies to new challenges and the prospects of integration into the global service market.