Backcasting Policies in Transport Systems as an Optimal Control Problem : An Example with Electric Vehicle Purchase Incentives

This study represents a first attempt to build a backcasting methodology to identify the optimal policy roadmaps in transport systems. Specifically, it considers a passenger car fleet subsystem, modelling its evolution and greenhouse gas emissions. The policy decision under consideration is the monetary incentive to the purchase of electric vehicles. This process is cast as an optimal control problem with the objective to minimize the total budget of the state and reach a desired CO2 target. A case study applied to Metropolitan France is presented to illustrate the approach. Additionally, alternative policy scenarios are also analyzed.