JUSTIFICATION OF STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES FOR A MOTOR TRANSPORT ENTERPRISE BASED ON THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP)

The article presents a comprehensive study focused on the substantiation of strategic development alternatives for a motor transport enterprise (MTE) under conditions of extreme uncertainty caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine. The research relies on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the core methodological tool, allowing for structured, multi-criteria evaluation of strategic choices while integrating both qualitative and quantitative factors. The proposed hierarchical decision model includes four key criteria (urgency, resource availability, necessity, and feasibility) and nine strategic alternatives derived from clustered strategic business groups (SBGs) of the enterprise. Pairwise comparisons were performed with the participation of enterprise experts to identify both local and global priority vectors. All expert judgments were validated through consistency ratio testing (CR ≤ 0.1), ensuring the reliability of outcomes. The highest-scoring strategies were A9 (intensification of vehicle maintenance and repair services for third-party clients) and A8 (service restructuring through subcontracting or strategic partnerships). Tactical implementation plans were developed for both alternatives, including the creation of mobile maintenance teams, vehicle conversion into mobile repair units, digitalization of service management platforms, and standardization of inspection protocols. The estimated investment required for implementing the top strategies is between UAH 850,000 and 860,000, with a projected 12–15% increase in fleet technical readiness and a minimum expected return on investment of 10% within the first operational year. The proposed framework demonstrates the efficiency of AHP as a strategic planning instrument in volatile environments and contributes to enhancing the adaptive capacity and operational resilience of MTEs. Moreover, the findings serve as a foundation for developing post-war recovery strategies and can be adopted by other logistics and transportation enterprises operating under crisis conditions or planning for future disruptions.